Global wine production in 2021 is set to fall by 4% vs. 2020, to around 250 million hectolitres (mhl), close to the historic low of 2017, the International Organisation for Vine & Wine (OIV) has projected.

Such figures are preliminary, but they highlight the “severe impact” of adverse climatic conditions on the 2021 vintage in parts of Europe, said OIV director-general Paul Roca.

Europe’s major producing countries, France, Spain and Italy, lost about 22mhl of potential wine production to weather-related factors like frost, hailstorms and mildew, the OIV estimated.

France could see its tiniest wine harvest in decades and Roca said it is likely to fall behind Spain to third place in world wine production figures. France’s 2021 harvest is expected to hit 34.2mhl, down 27% on 2020, with Spain on 35mhl, down 14%, the OIV said. Italy, the world’s biggest producing nation, is likely to see a 2021 harvest of 44.5mhl, down 9% on last year.

Smaller harvests don’t necessarily offer lesser quality, and several winemakers have told Decanter that they remain optimistic about grapes that survived the 2021 conditions. Roca also cautioned against assuming that wine lovers will see shortages. Even though the OIV expects global wine consumption to rise, he said, “we cannot say there will be a shortage, because there is inventory”. Actually global wine stocks were high already before Covid crisis.  Stock levels may naturally vary by area, of course.

Many Southern hemisphere countries saw bigger vintages in 2021. Australia and Chile both increased wine production by around 30% versus 2020, to 14.2mhl and 13.4mhl respectively. US wine production was likely to rise by 6% versus 2020, to 24.1mhl, but is down by 3% on a five-year average. Drought has hit yields in some areas. On a global measure, however, 2021 is “the third year in a row that world wine production is below average”, Roca said.

Coming in the week of the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, a significant amount of the OIV’s press conference was devoted to climate challenges. Climate scientists have repeatedly warned of more frequent and unpredictable extreme weather events, which impact vineyards alongside whole communities. Roca spoke of a “destabilisation” of climatic conditions but also about the importance of work being done within the OIV and elsewhere to help winemakers adapt.